Cyril Ramaphosa’s supporters tell me that his position as head of the ANC would be untenable if the party scored 44% or below in the May 29 national election. He would face tough calls to quit.

Why 44% and not 46% or 42%? There is not enough time to listen to the details about the number, and these things are rather unscientific at the best of times. It’s best to sip on the cappuccino and prepare for the storm that is likely to unfold...

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